Oil prices have climbed above the $100-per-barrel mark as renewed attacks involving Iran, the United States and regional forces raise fresh concerns about oil shipments through the Middle East. The escalation is increasing supply risks for global energy markets and adding pressure on economies that depend heavily on imported crude.
Brent crude futures settled at $101.21 a barrel on September 9, gaining $3.29, or 3.4%. The benchmark reached an intraday high of $101.58 and recorded its highest close since May 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also climbed to $96.05 a barrel, its highest level since May 22.
On September 10, Brent remained above the $100 threshold, trading around $101.10 a barrel, while WTI stood near $96.24. Brent has gained nearly 30% from its early-August lows as concerns over prolonged supply disruptions intensify.
West Asia Conflict Raises Supply Risks
The latest oil price surge follows a sharp escalation in attacks on shipping. Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers. The developments represent one of the biggest waves of attacks on shipping since the conflict began.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the supply concerns. Before the war, the strategic waterway carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Shipping activity has since fallen significantly, with preliminary Kpler data showing only six commodity vessels passed through the Strait on September 8, compared with a 10-day average of about 12.
Oil flows have also remained well below pre-war levels. Reuters analysis indicates that Gulf oil exports are running at roughly two-thirds of pre-war volumes, despite some shipments continuing through less visible or alternative routes.
Pressure Extends Beyond the Oil Market
The impact of the disruption is already spreading into fuel and financial markets. Physical crude and refined-fuel markets remain tight, while diesel prices have reached exceptionally high levels. The uncertainty surrounding future shipments is also adding a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
Higher energy prices could add to inflationary pressure globally, particularly for industries with significant fuel, transportation and energy requirements. Airlines, logistics companies, chemical manufacturers, petrochemical producers and other energy-intensive businesses could face higher operating costs if crude remains elevated.
India Faces Additional Pressure
For India, sustained crude prices above $100 are particularly important because the country is heavily dependent on imported oil. Higher crude prices can increase the import bill and put pressure on the rupee.
Reuters reported on September 10 that the rupee had weakened to 95.1050 per U.S. dollar on September 9, with traders pointing to rising oil prices as an increasingly important source of pressure. The rupee had declined about 0.7% over the previous two sessions.
For Indian businesses, prolonged oil-price inflation could therefore translate into higher transportation, logistics and production costs, while also complicating the broader inflation outlook.
What Comes Next?
The immediate direction of crude prices will depend heavily on the duration and scale of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and other regional shipping routes. Continued attacks could keep supplies constrained and prices elevated, while any meaningful de-escalation could ease the geopolitical premium.
However, the current market is already signalling that oil supply security has become a major global business risk once again.
The move above $100 is more than a psychological milestone. It highlights how quickly geopolitical conflict can translate into higher energy costs, tighter physical markets and renewed inflation risks.
For manufacturers, logistics companies and other energy-intensive industries, the key question is no longer simply how high oil prices can go, but how long supply disruptions will last.
Key Numbers
- Brent: $101.21/barrel — September 9 settlement
- WTI: $96.05/barrel — September 9 settlement
- Brent gain: Nearly 30% since early-August lows
- Strait of Hormuz: About one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies previously passed through the route Dated Brent: Above $100/barrel since September 3, according to LSEG data
