China is increasing its purchases of Russian seaborne crude, putting additional pressure on Indian refiners that have relied heavily on Russian oil as a source of supply.
China is expected to import around 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in August 2026, with a significant share coming from Russia’s European ports. These ports have traditionally supplied substantial volumes of Russian crude to India.
The shift comes amid disruptions to oil flows caused by the conflict involving Iran. The disruption has reduced China’s access to Iranian crude, prompting Chinese buyers to turn more heavily toward Russian supplies.
For India, the change is reflected in August import estimates. Indian imports of Russian crude are expected to fall to 1.87 million bpd, compared with more than 2.7 million bpd in both June and July, according to the Reuters report. India’s overall crude imports are also estimated at 4.17 million bpd in August, the lowest level since the Iran war began.
The development is significant because India remains highly dependent on imported crude. Reuters reported earlier in August that Russia accounted for 50.83% of India’s crude imports in July, with Russian shipments reaching 2.47 million bpd. Russia was also India’s largest crude supplier during the April-July period.
At the same time, Indian refiners have benefited from strong demand for refined fuels as disruptions have affected supply elsewhere. Reuters reported that Indian refineries, including Reliance and Nayara, have been operating at high utilisation and acting as important swing suppliers to Asian fuel markets.
The immediate challenge for India is therefore access to crude. If competition from China reduces the availability of Russian barrels from European ports, Indian refiners may need to source more crude from other suppliers. That could change the economics of refinery operations, particularly if replacement supplies are more expensive.
For India’s refining industry, the development highlights the importance of supply diversification. Russia has become a major component of India’s crude-import mix, but the latest disruption shows that global oil flows can change quickly when geopolitical conditions shift.
China’s stronger demand for Russian crude does not by itself determine India’s future fuel supply. But it does underline a strategic reality for Indian refiners: access to reliable and competitively priced crude is becoming increasingly important as geopolitical disruptions reshape global energy trade.
